Although the banking crisis that started in the USA seems to have subsided, question marks remain regarding the possible effects of the crisis.

While the concern that the credit expansion in the country will lose power and that this situation may accelerate the process that will lead the country’s economy to recession, uncertainties regarding the future of monetary policy also make pricing difficult.

Speaking yesterday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard emphasized that interest rate hikes should continue and that what needs to be done is to put more pressure on inflation.

In the pricing in the money markets, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points with a 40 percent probability in May, while the policy rate is expected to be kept constant with a 60 percent probability.

While the expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 100 basis points by the end of the year continue to lose strength, it is seen that the uncertainties regarding the decisions to be taken until the December meeting are high.

While the difference in the expectations of the Fed and the markets caused a search for direction in the asset prices, a sales-weighted course was observed in the bond markets, with the signals that the inflation pressure in the macroeconomic data announced in the country may continue.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which was above the expectations in March, increased by 0.8 points to 104.2 on a monthly basis, while the 10-year bond yield of the USA rose to 3.57 percent.

On the other hand, investigations into the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) continue in the USA.

Analysts noted that today, the US House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, SVB and Signature Bank’s bankruptcy session will be held.

Yesterday, with these developments, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.16 percent, the Dow Jones index by 0.12 percent and the Nasdaq index by 0.45 percent in the New York stock market. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with an increase.


Europe

While the European stock markets were moving in a limited upward trend yesterday, it is seen that the attention of the investors is turned to the steps to be taken by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Analysts stated that the signals to be received from the data that will intensify in the region from tomorrow are expected to be effective on the direction of the markets.

With these developments, the DAX 40 index rose by 0.09 percent in Germany, the FTSE 100 index rose by 0.17 percent in the UK, the MIB 30 index rose by 0.47 percent in Italy, and the CAC 40 index in France rose by 0.14 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a rise.


Asia

While a buying-heavy trend was prominent in Asian stock markets today, the news flow that Alibaba Group will be restructured according to the standards set by the Chinese government was effective in the rise in question.

While the share price of Alibaba Group gained about 13 percent after the news flow in question, the shares of Japanese Bank Softbank, which owns a share in the company, increased by close to 7 percent.

Near the closing, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 1.2 percent, South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.2 percent, China’s Shanghai composite index rose 0.1 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 2.4 percent.


Domestic markets

Domestically, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which continued its sales-weighted course yesterday, finished the day at 4,811.45 points, 3.73 percent below the previous closing.

Dollar/TRY is trading at 19,1220 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 19.1162 with an increase of 0.1 percent yesterday.

Analysts noted that today, consumer confidence index in Germany and pending housing sales data in the USA will be followed, and technically, the BIST 100 index 4.750 and 4.700 levels are support, 4.900 and 5.000 points are resistance.

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