Although the macroeconomic data announced in the USA last week, expectations that inflation has slowed down and that the “hawk” monetary policy steps will soon increase the risk appetite, the decision of OPEC+ countries to cut more than 1 million barrels a day in oil as of May caused inflation concerns in the markets to gain strength again. .
While the barrel price of Brent oil started the week at $83.5 with an increase of 4.6 percent, the sales-weighted course in the bond markets drew attention.
While the US 2-year bond yield increased by 8 basis points to 4.11 percent, the pricing that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue to increase interest rates also strengthened. While it is predicted that the Bank will increase interest rates by 25 basis points with a 59 percent probability next month, according to the pricing in the money markets, there are also predictions that the Fed will cut interest rates towards the end of the year.
Analysts stated that although the decline in inflation in the USA, albeit slower than expected, relieved the Fed, the tight course in the labor market continued to feed inflation concerns.
Analysts, drawing attention to the importance of the labor force data to be announced this week, said that the non-farm employment data is likely to increase the volatility in the market.
On Friday, the S&P 500 index gained 1.44 percent, the Dow Jones index gained 1.26 percent and the Nasdaq index gained 1.74 percent in the New York stock market. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new week with a mixed movement.
While a buying-heavy trend stood out in the European stock markets throughout the last week, the decline in inflation in the region, albeit at different speeds, increased the risk appetite.
Despite the slowdown in inflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue its “hawkish” steps for a while to reach its 2 percent inflation target. It is priced in the money markets that at the next meeting, the Bank will increase interest rates by 25 basis points with an 85 percent probability. It is estimated that the ECB will increase interest rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting and end its “hawk” policies.
With these developments, the DAX 40 index rose 0.69 percent in Germany, the FTSE 100 index rose by 0.15 percent in the UK, the MIB 30 index rose 0.34 percent in Italy and 0.81 percent in the CAC 40 index in France. . Index futures contracts in Europe started the new week with mixed movements.
While a mixed course was observed in Asian stock markets, developments in oil prices and China were influential in this course.
China’s investigation into the US semiconductor chip manufacturer Micron has brought with it the concern that tensions between the US and China may rise again. On the other hand, while pricing in the Chinese markets that domestic manufacturers can benefit from this situation, the rise in the stock prices of semiconductor chip manufacturers exceeded 2 percent.
On the other hand, macroeconomic data announced in the region continued to give mixed signals. Accordingly, the Caixin manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in China fell to 50 in March, raising questions about the recovery observed in the economy after the removal of the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) measures in the country.
In Japan, although the manufacturing industry PMI rose to 49.2, it showed that the contraction in the manufacturing sector continued.
While the Nikkei 225 index in Japan and the Shanghai composite index in China gained 0.5 percent near the closing, the Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 0.3 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 0.4 percent.
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-weighted course on Friday, finished the day at 4,812.93 points, 1.7 percent below the previous close.
While the eyes are turning to the inflation data to be announced in the country today, economists participating in the expectations survey of AA Finans expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to increase by 2.86 percent in March. According to the average of economists’ inflation expectations for March (2.86 percent), it is calculated that annual inflation, which was 55.18 percent in the previous month, will decline to 51.35 percent.
Dollar/TL is trading at 19.1950 level at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 19.1777 with a flat course on Friday.
Analysts stated that today, the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the manufacturing industry PMI data will be followed around the world, and noted that technically, 4.800 and 4.700 levels in the BIST 100 index are support and 4.850 and 4.900 points are resistance.