The “hawk” steps taken by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the fight against inflation, albeit slowly, have an impact on the country’s economy.

While signs of a slowdown in the labor market intensify in the data released this week, this situation strengthens the concerns in the markets that the US economy may enter a recession.

It is seen that investors, who have been between inflation and recession concerns for a long time, have decreased their interest in relatively risky assets after the recession danger started to come to the fore.

In the bond markets, the buying-heavy course with investors in search of safe haven moved to the 6th day, while the US 10-year bond yield tested its lowest level since September 12, 2022, with 3.27 percent yesterday.

These developments also have an impact on the expectations regarding the Fed’s monetary policies. In the pricing in the money markets, the prediction that the Bank will end the rate hikes with a 55 percent probability next month comes to the fore.

On the other hand, non-farm employment data to be announced tomorrow is expected to further clarify the picture regarding the course of the economy.

While the search for a safe haven and the expectations that the Fed will soon end its “hawk” policies continue to support precious metal prices, the ounce price of gold, which tested its highest level since March 9, 2022 with $ 2,032 yesterday, is currently at $ 2,012.

With these developments in the New York stock market, the S&P 500 index depreciated by 0.25 percent and the Nasdaq index depreciated by 1.07 percent, while the Dow Jones index rose by 0.24 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a decline.


While the European stock markets continued their search for direction yesterday, the macroeconomic data announced in the region give mixed signals regarding the economy. While it is observed that inflation expectations in the region have slowed down, economic activity continues to remain strong.

According to the data released yesterday, industrial production in Germany increased by 4.8 percent on a monthly basis, far surpassing the expectations of 0.3 percent.

While the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of the services sector throughout the region points to expansion by continuing its course above 50, it is considered that the European Central Bank (ECB) will increase interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting to be held next month.

On the other hand, the buying weighted course in the bond markets is also effective in Europe.

With these developments, DAX 40 index decreased by 0.53 percent in Germany, CAC 40 index decreased by 0.39 percent in France and MIB 30 index decreased by 0.59 percent in Italy, while FTSE 100 index increased by 0.37 percent in England. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a mixed course.


As for Asian stock markets, a sales-based trend stands out today, while the central banks of the countries in the region continue to surprise the markets.

While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the policy rate by 50 basis points yesterday, despite the market expectations of 25 basis points, today the Reserve Bank of India left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50 percent despite the expectations for a 25 basis point increase.

According to the data announced in China, the service sector PMI rose to 57.8, while the composite PMI rose to 54.5.

On the other hand, while the selling pressure on Japanese bonds has slowed down today, Japan’s 10-year bond yield stands at 0.47 percent.

Close to the closing, Nikkei 225 index decreased by 1.3 percent in Japan, Shanghai composite index decreased by 0.1 percent in China, Kospi index decreased by 1.4 percent in South Korea and Hang Seng index decreased by 0.3 percent in Hong Kong.

Domestic markets

BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-weighted course in the domestic market yesterday, finished the day at 4,919.87 points, 1.29 percent below the previous closing.

Dollar/TL is traded at 19.2550 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 19.2452 with an increase of 0.1 percent yesterday.

Analysts stated that weekly money and bank statistics in the country, industrial production in Germany and weekly unemployment applications in the USA will be followed today, and technically, 4.900 and 4.850 levels in the BIST 100 index are support and 5.000 and 5.050 points are resistance.

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