With the slowing economic activity around the world, recession concerns began to have an impact on asset prices.
According to the data released in the USA yesterday, the Number of Jobs Opened in JOLTS decreased by 632 thousand in February compared to the previous month and fell to 9 million 931 thousand. The number of vacancies, which fell short of expectations, fell below 10 million for the first time since May 2021. Factory orders in the country also fell 0.7 percent in February, failing to meet market expectations.
On the other hand, banking stocks fell more than 1 percent after JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the banking crisis in the USA is not over yet and its effects will continue to be felt in the coming years.
Analysts noted that the ADP private sector employment to be announced in the USA today and Friday’s non-farm employment data are expected to shed more light on the market situation, adding that the said data may increase the volatility in asset prices.
Yesterday, after the signals in the labor markets and Dimon’s statements, the estimates for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to increase interest rates by 25 basis points next month in the pricing in the money markets decreased from 58 percent to 42 percent.
While the expectations that the Fed might end interest rate hikes have led to a strengthening of the buying-heavy course in the bond markets, the US 2-year bond yield fell by about 14 basis points to 3.83 percent yesterday, and was at 3.87 percent in the new day. balanced.
With the aforementioned situation, a buying-heavy trend was also observed in precious metals, while the price of an ounce of gold increased by 1.81 percent and an ounce of silver by 4.2 percent, reaching $2,020 and $25, respectively, yesterday.
With these developments in the New York stock market, the S&P 500 index lost 0.58 percent, the Dow Jones index fell 0.59 percent and the Nasdaq index lost 0.52 percent yesterday. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a mixed course.
While the European stock markets showed a mixed course yesterday, the inflation pressure in the region continues to slow down.
According to the data released yesterday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the Eurozone remained below expectations with an increase of 13.2 percent in February. According to the expectations survey published by the European Central Bank (ECB), the inflation expectation for the next 12 months in February decreased from 4.9 percent to 4.6 percent.
Most of the ECB officials continue to emphasize that the bank is nearing the end of interest rate hikes. Accordingly, while the ECB is expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points with a 90 percent probability in the next meeting, it is seen that the uncertainty in the forecasts for the post-May period has gained strength.
With these developments, the DAX 40 index rose by 0.14 percent in Germany yesterday, while the FTSE 100 index in England decreased by 0.50 percent and the MIB 30 index in Italy decreased by 0.56 percent. In France, the CAC 40 index remained flat. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a mixed course.
While a mixed course is also prominent in Asian stock markets, there are no transactions in China and Hong Kong stock markets today due to the holiday.
While regional central banks continue to announce their policy decisions, the Central Bank of New Zealand today raised the policy rate by 50 basis points to 5.25 percent, against market expectations of 25 basis points.
On the other hand, according to the macroeconomic data announced in Japan, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the services sector rose to 55.2 and the composite PMI to 52.9.
While the Nikkei 225 index lost 1.6 percent in Japan near the closing, the Kospi index in South Korea rose 0.5 percent.
Domestically, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-heavy course yesterday, finished the day at 4,984.11 points, 2.99 percent above the previous closing.
Dollar/TL is trading at 19.2410 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 19.2246 with an increase of 0.1 percent yesterday.
Analysts stated that today, factory orders in Germany, services sector and composite PMI in Germany, and ADP private sector employment data in the USA will be followed, noting that technically, 5,000 and 5.150 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the resistance position, and 4.900 and 4.850 points are in the support position.