While the labor market data announced in the USA throughout the week had an impact on asset prices, the decision of OPEC+ countries to cut oil supply last week also made pricing difficult in the markets.
According to the data released yesterday in the USA, non-farm employment realized as 236,000 in March, in line with expectations, while the unemployment rate decreased from 3.6 percent to 3.5 percent.
According to the data released on Thursday in the country, the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time increased to 228,000 in the week ending April 1, exceeding expectations. Private sector employment failed to meet the projections on Wednesday, after the JOLTS Vacancies data, which fell below 10 million for the first time since May 2021 in the country.
It was seen that the search for a safe haven supported the bond demand after the recession danger of investors, who were caught between inflation and recession concerns, started to come to the fore.
The US 10-year bond yield ended the week at 3.41%, down about 7 basis points, after seeing the lowest level since September 2022 with 3.26 percent last week.
Analysts said that with the US non-farm payrolls data coming in line with expectations, uncertainties regarding the steps to be taken by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) next month remain strong.
Analysts noted that the macroeconomic data announced in the USA pointed to a limited slowdown in inflation, and that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be announced on Wednesday is the focus of investors.
Analysts said that the signals from the labor market are not clear and that the course of inflation is expected to increase the volatility in asset prices.
While the search for a safe haven continues to support precious metal prices with increasing uncertainties, the ounce price of gold, which tested its highest level since March 9, 2022 with $2,032, closed the week at $2,007 with an increase of 1.93 percent.
The barrel price of Brent oil also completed the week at $84.7 with a 6 percent gain last week, carrying the upward trend for the third week in a row.
New York stock market mixed
While the US stock markets followed a mixed course last week, investors will focus on possible signals from the Fed minutes as well as inflation data on Wednesday next week.
According to the data released this week, the Supply Management Institute (ISM) manufacturing index remained below market expectations with 46.3 in March, while the continuation of the contraction in the manufacturing industry was another factor that increased the recession concerns. Factory orders also fell 0.7 percent in February, below expectations.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index fell 0.1 percent and the Nasdaq index 0.9 percent, while the Dow Jones index rose 0.63 percent in the New York stock market last week.
In the data calendar of the week starting with April 10, inflation and FOMC meeting minutes will be followed on Wednesday, Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly unemployment applications on Thursday, and retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization rate on Friday.
Economic activity in Europe looks strong
While European stock markets followed a mixed course last week, macroeconomic data announced in the region indicated that economic activity remained strong compared to expectations.
While the strengthening of economic activity supports the expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue its hawkish steps in the meeting to be held next month, a 25 basis point increase in interest rates in money markets is considered certain.
According to the data released this week, factory orders in Germany increased by 4.8 percent on a monthly basis, far surpassing expectations of 0.3 percent, while industrial production in the country increased by 2.0 percent on a monthly basis, exceeding forecasts.
While the manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in Germany exceeded the expectations with 44.7 in March and the manufacturing industry PMI in the Euro Area with 47.3, the manufacturing industry PMI in the UK was below the estimates with 47.9.
Although the manufacturing industry PMI remained below the 50 level throughout the region, pointing to a contraction, it was positive that it exceeded the expectations, while the service sector PMI in the region continued its course above 50, pointing to expansion.
With these developments, the FTSE 100 index gained 1.44 percent in the UK and the MIB 30 index gained 0.37 percent in Italy, while the DAX index in Germany lost value by 0.20 percent. In France, the CAC 40 index remained flat.
Next week, retail sales and investor confidence index in the Eurozone will be followed on Tuesday, inflation in Germany, industrial production and growth data in the UK will be followed on Thursday. On Monday, markets in the region will be closed due to the holiday.
Central banks of countries in the Asian Region surprised the markets
While a mixed course stood out in Asian stock markets last week, the central banks of the countries in the region surprised the markets.
During the week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the policy rate by 50 basis points, despite market expectations of 25 basis points, while the Reserve Bank of India kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.50 percent, despite expectations for a 25 basis point hike.
While the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.60 percent, it stated in the policy text that “additional tightening can be made if necessary”.
At the beginning of the week, China’s investigation into US semiconductor chip maker Micron brought along the concern that tensions between the US and China might rise again, while volatility in semiconductor chip maker companies increased.
While the macroeconomic data announced in the region continued to give mixed signals, Caixin manufacturing industry PMI in China fell to 50 in March, raising questions about the recovery observed in the economy after the removal of the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) measures in the country. The services sector PMI rose to 57.8 in March and the composite PMI rose to 54.5 in the same period.
On the other hand, in Japan, the government has officially appointed Ueda Kazuo as the new head of the Central Bank (BoJ). BoJ President Kuroda Haruhiko’s 10-year term of office in Japan comes to an end by the weekend.
While the sustainability of the BOJ’s ultra-wide monetary policies and the 2 percent inflation target are among the concerns of the Ueda period, the government emphasizes that the BOJ should continue to work closely with the government to ensure economic growth and price stability.
Although the manufacturing industry PMI in Japan increased to 49.2 in March, it showed that the contraction in the manufacturing sector continued, while the service sector PMI rose to 55.2 and the composite PMI to 52.9 in the same period. The leading index in the country rose to 97.7 in February.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 0.87 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong by 0.34 percent on a weekly basis, while the Shanghai composite index in China and the Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 1.67 percent and 0.55 percent. rose.
In the data calendar of the week starting with April 10, the balance of payments in Japan on Monday, CPI and PPI in China on Tuesday, and foreign trade surplus in China on Thursday will be followed.
BIST 100 index ended its three-week downward trend
BIST 100 index, which has been in a downward trend for three consecutive weeks in the domestic market, closed at 4,924.64 points with an increase of 2.3 percent this week, while the next week’s eyes were turned to the balance of payments on Monday and industrial production data on Tuesday.
Economists participating in AA Finans’ expectations survey expect the current account to have a deficit of 8.18 billion dollars in February. While the current account account gave a deficit of 9 billion 849 million dollars in January 2023, the annualized current account deficit was 51 billion 686 billion dollars.
This week, the Capital Markets Board (CMB) approved the public offering application of Europower Enerji ve Otomasyon Teknolojileri Sanayi Ticaret AŞ for 40.60 liras.
According to the data released last week, while the CPI remained below expectations with a monthly increase of 2.29 percent and an annual increase of 50.51 percent, the World Bank raised its growth forecasts for Turkey’s economy from 2.7 percent to 3.2 percent for this year.
Dollar/TL closed the week at 19.2522, 0.39 percent above the previous weekly closing.
Analysts said that in the BIST 100 index, technically, 4.900 and 4.850 levels can stand out as support, and 5,000 and 5.100 points as resistance.
Next week, domestic and Wednesday retail sales will be followed.