Although the first quarter was quite volatile for stock investors, the upside potential in the stock market continues.
Having reached a record level of 5,704.83 points in the first week of the year, the BIST 100 index lost 12.6 percent with the downward trend that started from this level, and completed the first quarter at 4,812.93 points.
Analysts stated that the earthquakes put pressure on the balance sheet expectations of the companies and that this situation was one of the main factors in the negative performance of the stock market, and said that the uncertainties regarding the election period also caused the index to diverge negatively from the global stock markets.
Looking at the developed country’s stock markets in the said period, the FTSE 100 index in the UK is 2.4 percent, the US stock markets are around 1.2 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany is 12.2 percent, and the CAC 40 index in France is 13.1 percent. won.
On a sectoral basis, the only winner in the first quarter of the year was stone and soil with 3.8 percent, and the biggest loser was tourism with 29.2 percent.
In the first quarter, the most profitable stock was recorded as Oyak Cement with 55.9%, and Aydem Energy with 46.7%, which lost the most.
“This year, our expectation is that the BIST 100 index will rise to 6,800 levels”
Mehmet Gerz, General Manager of ATA Portfolio, said in a statement to AA correspondent that the stock market had doubled its return on dollar basis in 2022 and said that 10-15 percent profit realization should be considered normal in this period when the elections are approaching.
Stating that it is understandable that investors switched from the stock market to KKM after the upper limit of interest for Currency Protected Deposits (KKM) was abolished, Gerz emphasized that this was another factor that caused fluctuations in the stock market.
Noting that they think 2023 may be a volatile year for the stock market, Gerz said, “Our expectation this year is that the BIST 100 index will rise to the levels of 6,800, that is, we can say that it is in the range of 6,500-7,000 points regionally.” said.
“We propose to diversify the portfolio before the election”
Emphasizing that one of the main rules of financial literacy is to “distribute risk”, Gerz said, “We recently reduced our stock offer a little. We recommend 25 percent stocks in a 100 lira portfolio. This is because deposit rates reach 30 percent, making the Turkish lira an alternative fixed-income investment instrument. We begin to see it as used the phrases.
Gerz stated that they attach importance to global diversification, therefore they recommend 35 percent global thematic funds, 10 percent gold and 10 percent eurobonds for portfolios.
Noting that they think that there is a serious potential for foreign investors to come to the stock market if a stable picture and a more sustainable economic program are put forward after the election, Gerz said, “As a result of foreign investors’ investments in large-scale stocks, that is, with BIST 30 and BIST 50 shares, we reached our target in the BIST 100 index. We anticipate it will.” said.
“There was a general expectation that the market would be good until the election if there were no earthquakes.”
Info Investment Deputy General Manager Mert Yılmaz said that the BIST 100 index, which started the first quarter of the year well, diverged negatively from the global equity markets despite the effects of the earthquakes and the measures announced afterward.
Stating that the Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquakes overshadowed everything, Yılmaz said, “Although good balance sheets came, we saw that the price was not priced due to the earthquakes and there was a break in the investor appetite. With the removal of the KKM interest cap, there was a decrease in the risk appetite.” said.
Expressing that there is a general expectation that the market will be good until the elections in the absence of earthquakes, Yılmaz said that despite the measures taken after the earthquakes, he predicts that the fluctuating course in the stock market will continue until the elections.
Stating that the 2023 expectations depend on the election result and that there are different scenarios in this regard, Yılmaz stated that with the possibility of the Presidential election going to the second round, tensions may arise on the market and a lost period may be experienced until the end of May.
Yılmaz stated that banking is still cheap on a sectoral basis and that he expects the automotive, retail trade and transportation sectors to be good in the coming period.