The inflation data to be announced tomorrow, following the labor markets that remain strong in the country, are expected to have an impact on the expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy steps in the next period.
With the non-farm employment announced on Friday last week at 236,000, which is in line with the expectations, the pricing that the Fed will continue to increase interest rates in May continues to strengthen. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank is 72 percent.
Uncertainties regarding the policies to be followed by the Fed after May continue to remain strong, and it is estimated that the balance sheet season that will accelerate with banks such as JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citibank on Friday may reduce the question marks regarding these expectations.
Analysts noted that the Fed wanted to slow down the economic activity as part of the fight against inflation, however, the market continued to worry whether the Bank’s steps would cause a sudden stop in the country’s economy.
On the other hand, World Bank Group President David Malpass reported that the global economic growth forecast was revised from 1.7 percent to 2 percent for this year.
After a 10-month hiatus, Bitcoin rose again above the level of 30 thousand dollars, and the price of ounce of gold increased by 0.5 percent to $ 2,000.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 index gained 0.10 percent and the Dow Jones index gained 0.30 percent in the New York stock market, while the Nasdaq index decreased by 0.03 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a mixed course.
The holiday, which started on Friday in European stock markets, has ended as of today. Index futures contracts are at a premium of close to 1 percent after the holiday.
While the stock markets excluding China are moving in an upward trend in Asia, the data announced today in China is effective in this course.
Accordingly, China’s CPI increased by 0.7 percent annually in March, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.5 percent. Analysts reported that especially the decline in PPI indicates a decrease in demand in the world, increasing concerns about the Chinese economy.
In Japan, the rise in the share markets exceeded 1 percent after the famous investor Warren Buffet announced that he invested in Japanese companies and that he would increase these investments.
In South Korea, the central bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.50 percent, in line with expectations.
While the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 1.2 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea increased by 1.4 percent near the closing, the Shanghai composite index in China decreased by 0.5 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 0.1 percent.
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-heavy course in the domestic market yesterday, finished the day at 5,092.31 points, 3.40 percent above the previous closing.
Dollar/TL is trading at 19.2730 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 19.2757 with an increase of 0.1 percent yesterday.
Analysts stated that today, industrial production in the country, retail sales in the Eurozone abroad, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Global Economic Outlook Report will be followed, and technically, 5.150 and 5.200 levels in the BIST 100 index are resistance, 5.050 and 5.000 points are support. noted that it is in position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Türkiye, February industrial production
12.00 Eurozone, February retail sales
16.00 IMF Global Economic Outlook Report