Uncertainties regarding the US economy continue to complicate pricing in the markets.
In the Fed’s “Beige Book” report published yesterday, it was noted that general economic activity has changed “very little” in recent weeks, and growth expectations have not changed to a large extent.
In the report, consumer prices have generally increased due to still high demand as well as higher inventory and labor costs.
On the other hand, the average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage (housing loan) in the USA rose to 6.43 percent last week, recording the first increase in 6 weeks.
According to the financial results of the company announced yesterday in the country, the net profit of Morgan Stanley, one of the largest banks of the USA, in the first quarter of this year decreased by 19 percent and its income by 2 percent. US electric car maker Tesla’s revenue reached $23.3 billion, while its net profit fell to $2.5 billion.
In addition to the aforementioned developments, Fed members continued their verbal guidance, while New York Fed President John Williams stated that inflation continued to slow down but was still at a very high level.
While the Fed’s 25 basis points increase in interest rates next month was considered certain in the pricing in the money markets, the uncertainties regarding the July meeting also strengthened.
Accordingly, while the bank is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged in July with a 61 percent probability, the probability that it will increase interest rates by 25 basis points has increased to 30 percent.
However, yesterday, volatility in bond markets and commodity prices increased as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will make adjustments to the yield curve at this month’s meeting and the Bank of England (BoE) will increase interest rates by 3 until the end of the year.
While the US policy rate sensitive 2-year bond yield reached its highest level since March 15 with 4.31 percent, the price of gold partially compensated for its losses after falling to the lowest level since April 3, with $ 1,969 per ounce yesterday, at 1,995. completed in dollars.
The barrel price of Brent oil also lost 0.8 percent today, after falling by 2.3 percent yesterday.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.01 percent and the Dow Jones index by 0.23 percent in the New York stock market yesterday, while the Nasdaq index rose by 0.03 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a decline.
Europe
While European stock markets were in an upward trend, excluding the UK, pricing in money markets, suggesting that BoE would increase interest rates by 3 instead of 2, was effective in this performance.
The fact that the inflation data announced in the Euro Zone was in line with the expectations supported the risk appetite.
Yesterday, the DAX 40 index in Germany rose by 0.08 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 0.21 percent and the MIB 30 index in Italy by 0.15, while the FTSE 100 index in the UK decreased by 0.13 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a mixed course.
While the mixed course in the USA moved to Asia in the new day, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, one of the world’s largest semiconductor chip manufacturers, which will announce the financial results of the company today, has placed the focus of investors.
While the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left the 1-year and 5-year lending rates unchanged at 3.65 percent and 4.30 percent, respectively, in its decisions today, the possible news flow regarding the monetary policies of the BoJ is closely followed.
While the Nikkei 225 index increased by 0.2 percent in Japan near the closing, the Shanghai composite index decreased by 0.4 percent in China, the Hang Seng index decreased by 0.2 percent in Hong Kong and the Kospi index decreased by 0.7 percent in South Korea.
Domestic markets
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-heavy course in the domestic market yesterday, finished the day at 5,061.22 points, 0.85 percent above the previous closing.
The decision of the US Supreme Court regarding Halkbank was effective in this rise.
Accordingly, while the US Supreme Court decided that Halkbank was not immune from prosecution, it asked the Court of Appeal to reconsider Halkbank’s previous application for the dismissal of the case.
With the announcement of the decision, Halkbank shares gained more than 10 percent, closing the day with a ceiling price of 12.55 liras.
Today, due to the eve of the stock market, transactions can be carried out until 12.40.
Dollar/TL is traded at 19.4020 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 19.3979 with an increase of 0.1 percent yesterday.
Analysts stated that today, the intense data agenda will be followed, especially weekly money and bank statistics in the country, the meeting minutes of the ECB abroad and second-hand house sales in the USA, technically speaking, the BIST 100 index 5,000 and 4.980 levels are support, 5.100 and 5.150 levels. He noted that the score was in the resistance position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Türkiye, PPI abroad for March
12.00 Türkiye, weekly money and bank statistics
13.00 Euro Zone, foreign trade deficit in February
14.30 Eurozone, minutes of the ECB meeting
15.30 US, weekly jobless claims
15.30 US, April Philadelphia Fed job outlook index
17.00 US, second-hand home sales and leading indicators index for March
17.00 Eurozone, April consumer confidence index
