The ongoing inflation problem around the world continues to have an impact on asset prices.
While the steps to be taken by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the fight against inflation continue to be in the focus of investors, the concerns that the Bank may increase interest rates more than market expectations negatively affect the risk appetite.
While the Fed members, who gave verbal guidance last week, largely maintained their “hawk” stance, the Bank’s 25 basis points interest rate hike next month is considered certain in the money markets pricing. However, the uncertainty regarding the forecasts for the June meeting makes it difficult for the stock markets to find direction.
Analysts stated that the core inflation in the USA is still far from the targeted level and the continuing upward trend in wages has narrowed the policy area of the Fed, and noted that the signals from the data to be announced this week are expected to have an impact on market pricing.
On the other hand, the failure of company profitability to meet expectations during the concentrated balance sheet period in the country has an impact on risk appetite, while the balance sheets of big US technology companies such as Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft, which will be announced this week, are in the focus of investors.
Analysts said that the second quarter forecasts of the said companies along with the first quarter results are also important and may increase the volatility in the markets.
Uncertainties regarding the Fed’s monetary policies suppressed commodity prices on the first day of the new week, while the barrel price of Brent oil is currently down 1.2 percent at $80.5, while the ounce price of gold is at $1,978 with a 0.3 percent depreciation.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.09 percent, the Dow Jones index by 0.07 percent and the Nasdaq index by 0.11 percent in the New York stock market on Friday. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new week with a decline.
Europe
European stock markets continued their upward trend last week, while the CAC 40 index in France continued to break records.
In the new week, the growth data to be announced in the region and the verbal guidance of the European Central Bank (ECB) officials are expected to have an impact on asset prices.
While the ECB’s interest rate hike by 25 basis points next month is considered certain, the possibility of a 50 basis point increase in interest rates continues to be included in the pricing with 23 percent.
On Friday, the DAX 40 index in Germany rose 0.54 percent, the FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 0.15 percent, the CAC 40 index in France rose 0.51 percent and the MIB 30 index in Italy rose 0.43.
Asian stock markets started the new week with a mixed movement due to the uncertainty regarding index futures contracts in Europe and the Fed’s monetary policies.
Asia
Analysts stated that the BoJ’s monetary policy decisions were placed in the focus of investors this week and noted that the increasing inflation pressure in the country, albeit limited, made it difficult to forecast the Bank’s monetary policies.
Stating that the news flow that the BOJ might change the yield curve band last week increased the volatility in asset prices, analysts said that the increasing geopolitical tension between China and Taiwan in the region also negatively affected the risk appetite.
While the Nikkei 225 index increased by 0.1 percent in Japan near the closing, the Shanghai composite index in China decreased by 0.3 percent, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong by 1.2 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea by 0.9 percent.
Domestic markets
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-weighted course in transactions realized until 12.40 on Thursday, due to the fact that it was the eve of Thursday, completed the day at 5,012.34 points, 0.97 percent below the previous closing.
Dollar/TL is traded at 19.4060 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 19.4044 with a flat course on Friday.
Analysts stated that today, the real sector confidence index and capacity utilization rate in Turkey, Ifo expectation indices in Germany, Chicago Fed national activity index in the USA and Dallas Fed manufacturing industry index data will be followed, from a technical point of view, the BIST 100 index is 5,000 and He noted that the 4,980 levels are in the support position, and the 5,100 and 5,150 points are in the resistance position.
