While the signs that the economy is continuing to cool in the USA strengthened the expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could end the rate hikes by May, the increasing recession anxiety also negatively affected the risk appetite.
According to the data released yesterday in the USA, Chicago Fed national activity index remained stable at -0.19, while Dallas Fed manufacturing industry index decreased to -23.4.
While the growing concerns about the economic activity in the country increased the demand for bonds, the projections in the money markets that the Fed might raise interest rates in June dropped significantly. Expectations that the Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next month are at 85 percent.
On the other hand, it is estimated that the macroeconomic data calendar that will intensify in the USA as of today and the signals from the company’s financial results will have an impact on the direction of the markets.
While the housing market data to be announced in the USA today is expected to give clearer signals regarding economic activity, it is predicted that the company’s financial results may increase the volatility based on shares and sectors.
Today, nearly 200 companies, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa and General Electric, are expected to announce their balance sheets.
While the changes in the pricing of the Fed’s monetary policies helped the gold ounce price increase by 0.2 percent to $ 1,993 in the new day, the price of Brent oil remained flat at $ 82.5 per barrel due to the recession concerns.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index gained 0.09 percent and the Dow Jones index gained 0.20 percent in the New York stock market yesterday, while the Nasdaq index decreased by 0.29 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a decline.
While European stock markets followed a mixed course yesterday, European Central Bank (ECB) officials continue their hawkish statements.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that the latest data indicate that interest rate hikes should continue, while ECB member Isabel Schanabel stated that a 50 basis point increase in interest rates is on the table.
Following these developments, the ECB is expected to increase interest rates by a total of 100 basis points until the end of the year.
Yesterday, the DAX 40 index decreased by 0.11 percent in Germany, the FTSE 100 index decreased by 0.02 percent in the UK, the CAC 40 index decreased by 0.04 percent in France and the MIB 30 index decreased by 0.75 percent in Italy. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a decline.
Concerns originating from China continue to erode risk appetite in Asia.
Analysts said that both the uncertainties about the state of the Chinese economy and the increasing tension between China and the USA continue to put pressure on the regional stock markets.
On the other hand, while the South Korean economy grew by 0.3 percent in the first quarter of the year, leaving the expectations behind, analysts stated that this situation opened up policy space for the South Korean Central Bank, which is caught between inflation and recession.
While the Nikkei 225 index increased by 0.2 percent in Japan near the closing, the Shanghai composite index decreased by 0.8 percent in China, the Hang Seng index decreased by 1.7 percent in Hong Kong and the Kospi index decreased by 1.6 percent in South Korea.
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-heavy course in the domestic market yesterday, finished the day at 5,022.79 points, 0.21% above the previous closing.
Dollar/TL is traded at 19.4140 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 19.4085 with a flat course yesterday.
Analysts stated that the housing price index, new housing sales, consumer confidence index and Richmond Fed industrial index data will be followed in the USA today, and noted that technically, 5,000 and 4.980 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the support position, and 5.100 and 5.150 points are in the resistance position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
16.00 US, February housing price index
17.00 US, new home sales in March
17.00 US, April CB consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed industrial index