The banking crisis, which was thought to be left behind in the USA, became the main risk factor again after the announced balance sheets.
While the decline in the share price of First Republic, one of the banks mentioned in the banking crisis in the country, continued yesterday, the depreciation in the share price exceeded 60 percent since the beginning of the week. While the loss of deposits in the first quarter was remarkable in the balance sheet announced by First Republic, the news flow that the bank might need funds close to 100 billion dollars caused the risk perception to increase even more.
While the news that government officials did not want to intervene in the recovery process of First Republic Bank was effective in the said decline, it was reported that the limitation of the federal borrowing of the bank was evaluated in the report of Bloomberg.
Expectations regarding the Fed’s monetary policy decisions are uncertain.
While these developments increased the volatility in asset prices, expectations regarding the monetary policy decisions to be announced by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) next week became uncertain once again. Accordingly, while the predictions that the Fed will increase interest rates by 25 basis points at the May meeting decreased to 70 percent, the predictions that the bank could skip May and increase interest rates in June began to be voiced.
While the profitability of major companies continued to meet expectations during the intensified balance sheet period, Meta, owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, surpassed market expectations with a revenue of 28.7 billion dollars in the first quarter of this year. Today, companies such as Amazon, Mastercard, Sanofi and Unilever are on the balance sheet calendar.
Commodity prices fluctuate
On the other hand, while the macroeconomic data calendar in the USA is placed in the focus of investors today, the first quarter growth data to be announced in the country and the core personal consumption expenditures data, one of the Fed’s inflation measures, are expected to increase the volatility in asset prices.
With these developments, yesterday, the US House of Representatives approved the bill presented by the Republicans, which envisages increasing the debt limit of 31.4 trillion dollars in the country and cutting public spending.
While commodity prices followed a fluctuating course in line with the aforementioned developments, the barrel price of Brent oil decreased by 3.5 percent to $77.8. The ounce price of gold increased by 0.5 percent on the new day to $ 2,000.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 index fell 0.38 percent and the Dow Jones index fell 0.68 percent in the New York stock market, while the Nasdaq index rose 0.47 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with rising.
Risk perception continues in Europe
While the European stock markets followed a sales-oriented course yesterday, the statements of the European Central Bank (ECB) officials that they will continue to increase interest rates despite the increasing recession risk in the world support the risk perception.
Yesterday, the DAX 40 index decreased by 0.48 percent in Germany, the FTSE 100 index decreased by 0.49 percent in the UK, the CAC 40 index decreased by 0.86 percent in France and the MIB 30 index decreased by 0.54 in Italy. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a decrease.
While the markets in Asia started with a new day-to-day trend, the profitability of technology companies exceeding expectations in the USA was influential in this course.
Near the closing, the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.1 percent in Japan, the Shanghai composite index rose 1% in China, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose 0.6 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea rose 0.4 percent.
Domestically, eyes turned to the Central Bank
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-weighted course in the domestic market yesterday, finished the day at 4,783.5 points, 2.20 percent below the previous closing.
While domestic eyes are turning to the monetary policy decisions of the CBRT, most economists participating in the expectations survey predict that the policy rate will be kept constant at 8.50 percent.
Dollar/TL is traded at 19.4260 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 19.4232 with a flat course yesterday.
Analysts stated that, in addition to the CBRT’s interest rate decision, weekly money and bank statistics will be followed today, as well as the consumer confidence index in the Euro Zone and the first quarter GDP, personal expenditures and pending house sales data in the USA, technically BIST. He noted that 4,750 and 4,650 levels in the 100 index are in the support position and 4,800 points are in the resistance position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Türkiye, April economic confidence index
12.00 Eurozone, April consumer confidence index
14.00 Türkiye, CBRT’s interest rate decision
14.30 Türkiye, weekly money and bank statistics
15.30 US, weekly jobless claims
15.30 US, Q1 growth, core PCE
17.00 US, pending home sales in March