In the intensified balance sheet period, the profit announcement of US companies above the market expectations positively affected the risk appetite, while the uncertainties regarding the US economy continue.
New York stock market yesterday; While the owner of Facebook, Instgram and WhatsApp moved in an upward trend led by META, Amazon’s profit, which announced the company’s financial results after the markets closed, exceeded the market forecasts.
Accordingly, the sales of the US e-commerce giant Amazon increased by 9 percent in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period of 2022. Amazon’s net profit was also $3.2 billion in the first quarter. The company reported a loss of $3.8 billion in the same period last year.
Today, companies such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron stand out in the balance sheet calendar.
On the other hand, the macroeconomic data released yesterday strengthened the uncertainties regarding the US economy.
Accordingly, while the US economy grew slower than expected with 1.1 percent in the first quarter of this year, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which is expected to increase by 4.7 percent on a quarterly basis, increased by 4.9 percent.
Analysts stated that the risk of inflation still remains alive despite the weakening of the economic activity in the country, and drew attention to the fact that the steps to be taken by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) within the scope of the fight against inflation may increase the risk of recession.
With these developments, it is predicted that the Fed will increase the interest rate by 25 basis points with a probability of 86 percent next week, while it is estimated that the bank will keep the policy rate constant in June.
While it is seen that the concerns about the banking crisis in the country have subsided for now, the share price of First Republic Bank increased by nearly 10 percent yesterday.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 index rose 1.96 percent, the Dow Jones index rose 1.57 percent and the Nasdaq index rose 2.43 percent in the New York stock market. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a decrease.
While European stock markets followed a buying-heavy course yesterday, except for the UK, today’s intense macroeconomic data calendar in the region has been the focus of investors.
Analysts noted that the growth data to be announced in the Eurozone and Germany may signal how much room the European Central Bank (ECB) has in its “hawk” policies, and that inflation data in Germany is expected to give a clue about the course of inflation in the region.
While the DAX 40 index increased by 0.03 percent in Germany, the CAC 40 index increased by 0.23 percent in France and the MIB 30 index increased by 0.19 in Italy, the FTSE 100 index decreased by 0.27 percent in the UK. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with rising.
While it is noteworthy that Asian markets have a strong risk appetite parallel to the USA, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced that it will review its monetary policy at today’s meeting. While the Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at minus 0.1 percent, and the yield curve target range at plus/minus 0.5 percent, in the published policy text, “The Bank will adopt a ‘wide policy’ in monetary policy to be implemented in a 1-1.5-year period. decided to make a ‘perspective’ review.” it was said.
BOJ lowered its 2023 growth expectation from 1.7 percent to 1.4 percent, while increasing its growth forecast for 2024 from 1.1 percent to 1.2 percent. The bank raised its core Consumer Price Index (CPI) expectation from 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent for 2023 and from 1.8 percent to 2 percent for 2024.
It was also stated that the meeting, which ended today, is important as it is the first monetary policy meeting of the new chairman of the BOJ, Ueda Kazuo.
On the other hand, while large banks in China are expected to announce their balance sheets, analysts stated that volatility in the stock markets may increase. According to the macroeconomic data announced in the region, industrial production in Japan increased by 0.8 percent and retail sales by 7.2 percent, exceeding expectations.
Near the closing, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 0.1 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China rose 1%, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose 0.6 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea rose 0.4 percent.
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a fluctuating course in the domestic market yesterday, finished the day at 4,789.63 points, 0.13 percent above the previous closing.
Yesterday, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) left the policy rate unchanged at 8.50 percent.
Dollar/TL is trading at 19.4530 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 19.4366 with an increase of 0.1 percent yesterday.
Analysts stated that today, the intense data agenda will be followed, especially the foreign trade balance in the country, the first quarter growth in the Eurozone and Germany, and personal income and expenditures in the USA. He noted that 4,800 and 4,900 points are in the resistance position.