The monetary policy decisions of central banks that will be announced this week around the world and the intense data agenda make pricing difficult.
While it is considered certain that the Fed will increase the policy rate by 25 basis points tomorrow, the signals from the policy text and Fed Chairman Powell’s statements are expected to have an impact on the direction of the markets.
Although pricing in the money markets suggests that the Bank may cut interest rates twice until the end of the year, it is stated that the said pricing may change in line with the developments in the future.
On the other hand, while the non-farm employment figure, which will be announced on Friday during the busy data week, is of great importance in terms of giving a clue about the course of the economy, the calming of the banking crisis in the country also erodes the risk perception.
The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced yesterday that First Republic Bank has been closed and its assets will be acquired by JPMorgan Chase, one of the largest US banks.
While the balance sheet period continues in the USA, companies expected to announce their balance sheets this week include Apple, Coinbase, Ford, Uber, Pfizer and Moderna.
Macroeconomic data announced in the country continues to produce mixed signals. Accordingly, although the Supply Management Institute’s (ISM) manufacturing index came in at 47.1 in April, above market expectations, it showed that the contraction in the manufacturing industry continued.
While the uncertainties in question cause a search for direction in commodity prices, the barrel price of Brent oil is $79.2 and the ounce price of gold is $1,982.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.04 percent, the Dow Jones index by 0.14 percent and the Nasdaq index by 0.11 percent in the New York stock market. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with mixed movements.
Europe
While the index futures contracts in the European stock markets, which were closed for the holiday yesterday, started the week with an increase, the monetary policy decisions to be announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) this week and the statements of ECB President Christine Lagarde after the meeting are in the focus of investors.
While it is considered certain that the ECB will increase interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, the possibility of a 50 basis point increase in interest rates continues to be possible. The Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in total until the end of the year.
Recalling that today’s macroeconomic data calendar includes inflation data to be announced in the Eurozone, analysts said that the said data may increase the volatility in the markets due to the influence of the ECB’s monetary policy decisions.
On Friday, the DAX 40 index in Germany rose by 0.77 percent, the FTSE 100 index in the UK by 0.50 percent and the CAC 40 index in France by 0.10 percent, while the MIB 30 index in Italy decreased by 0.30 percent.
Asia
It is noteworthy that before the Fed, investors in Asia acted cautiously.
Contrary to expectations, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased the policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 percent. In the statement made by the bank, it was stated that interest rate increases will continue if necessary.
Although the markets in China were closed until Thursday, the manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which was announced on Sunday, dropped to 49.2 and pointed to a contraction in the manufacturing industry, which strengthened the concerns about the economy.
Near the closing, the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.1 percent in Japan, the Hang Seng index rose 0.5 percent in Hong Kong and the Kospi index in South Korea rose 0.7 percent.
Domestic markets
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-weighted course on Friday, finished the day at 4,617.93 points, 3.58 percent above the previous close.
Dollar/TL is traded at 19.4640 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 19.4580 with a flat course yesterday.
Analysts stated that today, domestic and international manufacturing industry PMI data, CPI in the Euro Zone and JOLTS in the USA, the number of vacant jobs and factory orders will be followed. noted that.
