Although the news that the debt limit crisis in the USA could be resolved soon was welcomed in the markets, expectations regarding the Fed’s monetary policy became uncertain again after the macroeconomic data announced yesterday.
Recalling that yesterday, US President Joe Biden had several productive meetings with the Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy on the debt limit, he said that the negotiators are continuing the talks and progress has been made.
Reiterating that they agree that defaulting on the country’s debt is not an option, Biden said that the only way to move forward with the debt limit is a bipartisan agreement.
Analysts emphasized that the cash amount of the US treasury decreased from $ 76.5 billion to $ 49.5 billion yesterday, and stated that the expectations in the markets that the two sides can reach an agreement today are getting stronger.
On the other hand, the US economy grew by 1.3 percent in the first quarter of this year, above expectations. In the first quarter of the year, the increase in the personal consumption expenditures price index was recorded as 4.2 percent.
After the aforementioned data, while the expectations that the bank may increase the interest rate by 25 basis points in the next month’s meeting in the money market pricing exceeded 40 percent, it is predicted that if there is no interest rate increase in June, there will be an 84 percent probability of a 25 basis point increase in the July meeting.
Analysts stated that the data calendar is intense in the USA today, and that the signals to be taken from the data to be announced may increase the volatility in the markets.
On the other hand, California-based chip maker Nvidia’s share value rose close to 25 percent after revenue estimates that exceeded expectations, while the company’s market value approached 1 trillion dollars. The increase in Nvidia’s value was also effective in the rise of the Nasdaq index.
While the price of gold decreased by 0.9 percent to $1,941 an ounce yesterday, with the strengthening of pricing that the Fed may continue to raise interest rates, it is currently trading at $1,950, 0.5 percent above the previous close.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index rose 0.88 percent and the Nasdaq index rose 1.71 percent, while the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.11 percent in the New York stock market yesterday. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a decline.
While a sales-weighted course was prominent in Europe yesterday, the uncertainty in the region is increasing day by day.
According to the data released yesterday, the German economy technically entered recession, shrinking by 0.3 percent in the first quarter of this year due to the impact of unusually high inflation and rising interest rates on consumer spending.
On the other hand, ECB member Klaas Knot stated yesterday that the Bank should raise interest rates and keep them at these levels for a long time, including the July meeting.
Analysts stated that the lack of desired results on the inflation side despite the slowing economic activity in the region narrowed the policy area of the ECB, and stated that this situation made pricing difficult in the region.
Yesterday, the DAX 40 index decreased by 0.31 percent in Germany, the CAC 40 index decreased by 0.33 percent in France, the MIB 30 index in Italy decreased by 0.44 and the FTSE 100 index in the UK decreased by 0.74 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a mixed course.
While the mild atmosphere led by technology stocks in the USA was reflected in the Asian stock markets in the new day, the upward trend in semiconductor chip companies throughout the region draws attention.
On the other hand, according to data released in Japan, Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.2 percent in May, falling short of expectations.
Near the closing, the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.7 percent in Japan, the Shanghai composite index in China rose 0.5 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea rose 0.2 percent. Hong Kong markets are not trading today due to a holiday.
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-heavy course, albeit limited, in the domestic market yesterday, completed the day at 4,427.99 points, 0.07 percent above the previous close, while the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) policy rate was fixed at 8.50 percent yesterday. left.
Dollar/TL is traded at 19.9760 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 19.9413 with an increase of 0.2 percent yesterday.
Analysts stated that today the news about the US debt limit crisis will be followed, along with retail sales in the UK, personal income and expenditures in the US, durable goods orders and the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index data for May, technically adding 4,400 in the BIST 100 index. He noted that the 4,200 and 4,200 levels are in the support position, and the 4,500 and 4,600 points are in the resistance position.