While progress has been made in the debt limit crisis in the USA, which has been in the focus of the markets for a while, “hawk” pricing is getting stronger on the monetary policy side.
Speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, said in a statement yesterday that he is confident that the bill to increase the debt limit will receive the support of a sufficient number of Republicans, while House Minority Leader Democrat Hakeem Jeffries noted that he sees no problem in gaining support for the debt limit bill.
On the other hand, while the macroeconomic data announced in the USA revealed that the economy did not cool down as desired, the S&P Case-Shiller National House Price Index in the country rose by 0.4 percent on a monthly basis in March, adjusted for seasonal effects.
The index of housing prices in 20 cities in the USA increased by 0.5 percent on a monthly basis, adjusted for seasonal effects, and recorded its first decline since May 2012 with 1.1 percent on an annual basis.
Analysts stated that despite the steps taken by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), especially the housing market remained warm, this situation may force the Bank to continue taking “hawkish” steps.
Stating that the Fed’s Beige Book Report will be followed with the intense data to be announced today, analysts said that possible clues regarding the monetary policies of the future will be sought in the report.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said yesterday that he is looking for signs of cooling demand to convince him that inflation is falling, and that inflation will be more stubborn than many had hoped.
With these developments, the expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next month in pricing in the money markets rose to 63 percent, while the pricing that the Bank might cut interest rates towards the end of the year disappeared.
While the S&P 500 index was flat in the New York stock market yesterday, the Nasdaq index rose 0.32 percent. The Dow Jones index fell 0.15 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a decline.
While a sales-weighted course stood out in Europe yesterday, eyes were turned to the inflation data to be announced in Germany today.
Analysts said they were worried that inflation pressure, which remains strong in the region, could further “hawk” the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy expectations for the next period.
Yesterday, DAX 40 index decreased by 0.27 percent in Germany, CAC 40 index decreased by 1.29 percent in France, FTSE 100 index decreased by 1.38 percent in England and MIB 30 index decreased by 0.16 in Italy. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a sales-oriented course.
While a sales-dominated course stands out in the Asian markets, the concerns about the economies in the region continue to support the risk perception.
According to the data announced today in China, the manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) decreased to 48.8, indicating that the contraction in the manufacturing industry accelerated, while the service sector PMI fell to 54.5.
While industrial production in Japan fell by 0.3 percent on an annual basis, well below expectations, retail sales, which increased by 5 percent on an annual basis, failed to meet the projections.
Close to the closing, Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 1.7 percent, Shanghai composite index in China decreased by 0.9 percent, Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 0.2 percent and Hong Kong Hang Seng index decreased by 2.8 percent.
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-heavy course in the domestic market yesterday, finished the day at 4,951.35 points, 3.83 percent above the previous closing.
Today, while the eyes are turned to the first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data to be announced domestically, economists predict that the GDP increased by 3.74 percent in this period.
Dollar/TL is traded at 20,6530 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 20.4756 with an increase of 1.8 percent yesterday.
Analysts stated that today, the unemployment rate and inflation in Germany, the number of JOLTS vacant jobs in the USA and the Fed’s Beige Book Report will be followed, and technically, 5,000 and 5,200 levels in the BIST 100 index are resistance and 4,800 points are support. recorded.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Türkiye, 1st quarter growth
10.55 Germany, unemployment rate in May
14.00 Türkiye, banking sector net profit/loss status for April
15.00 Germany, May CPI
17.00 USA, JOLTS job vacancies in April
21.00 US, Fed’s Beige book report