The WTO has released its Global Goods Trade Barometer Report.
In the report, it was stated that although the WTO Goods Trade Barometer, which was 92.2 points in the previous reading, increased to 95.6, it remained below the basic value of 100 points, indicating that the increase in trade volumes started with a stability below the trend.
Reminding that the volume of trade in goods decreased by 2.4 percent on a quarterly basis and by 0.8 percent on an annual basis in the last quarter of last year, the report states that the decline in the 4th quarter of 2022 is due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, persistent high inflation in advanced economies, and more globally. It was noted that it was driven by several relevant factors, including tight monetary policy.
In the report, it was pointed out that the easing of epidemic restrictions in China at the end of last year increased port traffic in the country, but the decreasing ship traffic in Europe outweighed this. Accordingly, preliminary data showed that trade remained stagnant in the first quarter of 2023.
However, according to the report, which mentioned that the recent increase in export orders showed that the demand for tradable goods increased in the second quarter, these results are largely in line with the WTO’s forecast published on April 5, which predicts a growth of 1.7 percent in world goods trade in 2023. has been consistent.
The report emphasized that mixed signals in the barometer components suggest that the road to trade recovery may be bumpy.
In the report, it was stated that the automotive products index surpassed the trend with the support of strong sales in the USA and Europe with 110.8, and the export orders index with 102.7 rose above the trend after the fall experienced after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
On the other hand, indices representing container shipping, air freight and electronic components trade all remained below the trend and continued to signal weakness, according to the report.
Readings above 100 on the barometer indicate growth above the trend, while readings below 100 indicate below-trend growth.
The WTO Global Trade in Goods Barometer is published four times a year.