In world economies caught between inflation and recession, forecasts regarding monetary policies have an impact on asset prices.
The number of first-time jobless applicants rose to 261,000 in the week ending June 3, reaching the highest level since October 2021, according to data released yesterday in the US.
With the aforementioned data, the “hawk” pricing in the money markets weakened before the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decisions to be taken next week, with the predictions that the labor market may have started to cool down.
According to the pricing in the money markets, the predictions that the bank will increase interest rates by 25 basis points on June 14 decreased to 24 percent.
While this situation supported the buying trend in bond markets and precious metals, the possibility of recession also put pressure on the barrel price of Brent oil.
While the US 10-year bond yield decreased by about 10 basis points yesterday, the ounce price of gold rose 1.3 percent to $1,965. The barrel price of Brent oil decreased by 1.7 percent to 75.4.
On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) urged the Fed to stay on the course of monetary policy, pointing out that the pace of inflation in the US has slowed, but remains an important concern.
The S&P 500 index rose 0.62 percent, the Nasdaq index rose 1.02 percent, and the Dow Jones index rose 0.50 percent yesterday in the New York stock market. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a decline.
While there was a mixed course in Europe yesterday, according to the data in the Euro Zone, the regional economy contracted by 0.1 percent in the first quarter of this year and entered technical recession. The region contracted by 0.1 percent in the last quarter of last year.
Despite the recession in the region’s economy, there is no change in the pricing that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to increase interest rates.
The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in total until the end of the year.
While the FTSE 100 index decreased by 0.32 percent in the UK yesterday, the DAX 40 index increased by 0.18 percent in Germany, the CAC 40 index increased by 0.27 percent in France and the MIB 30 index increased by 0.81 in Italy. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with rising.
While Asian markets are following a buying-heavy course in the new day, the expectation that the Chinese government will strengthen its steps to support the economy comes to the fore.
According to the data released today in the country, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2 percent annually, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 4.6 percent.
Analysts stated that the said data raises the concern that the economic activity in the country may have slowed down and that there may be a loss of power in worldwide demand.
Reminding that the Chinese government had cut deposit rates yesterday, analysts said that the announced data brought with it estimations that new steps could be added to these steps.
Near the closing, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 1.7 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea rose 1.1 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China rose 0.1 percent and the Hong Kong Hang Seng index rose 0.3 percent.
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which was fluctuating in the domestic market yesterday, finished the day at 5,554.00 points, 0.13 percent below the previous closing.
On the other hand, Dr. Hafize Gaye Erkan became the first female president appointed to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), while Prof. Dr. Şahap Kavcıoğlu was appointed as the Chairman of the Banking Regulation and Supervision Board (BDDK).
Dollar/TL is trading at 23.4510 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 23.3681 with an increase of 0.5 percent yesterday.
Analysts stated that domestic industrial production data will be followed today, and noted that technically, the BIST 100 index’s 5.700 and 5.850 levels are resistance and 5.500 and 5.400 points are support.