Continuing uncertainties regarding monetary policies continue to complicate pricing in the markets.
While the “hawk” tone in the statements of Fed officials, who made statements on Friday, caused an increase in selling pressure in the stock markets, Fed Board Member Christopher Waller stated that the lack of movement in core inflation was disturbing, and a little more tightening would probably be needed.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he was comfortable with further rate hikes if future data did not confirm that slowing demand had returned inflation to its 2 percent target.
On the macroeconomic data side, the consumer confidence index measured by the University of Michigan in the USA increased by 4.7 points on a monthly basis to 63.9 in June, reaching the highest level in the last 4 months.
Short-term inflation expectations fell from 4.2 percent to 3.3 percent in June, the lowest level since March 2021, while long-term inflation expectations were 3 percent.
With these developments, it is predicted that the Fed will increase the policy rate with a 74 percent probability by 25 basis points in the pricing in the money markets next month, while Powell’s statements on Wednesday are expected to affect the market expectations.
On Friday, the S&P 500 index fell 0.37 percent, the Nasdaq index fell 0.68 percent and the Dow Jones index fell 0.32 percent in the New York stock market. There will be no trading in the US stock markets today due to the holiday.
While a buying-heavy course stood out in Europe on Friday, the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England (BoE) and the intense macroeconomic data to be announced in the region this week are in the focus of investors.
While it is considered certain that the BoE will increase interest rates by 25 basis points in pricing in money markets, it is anticipated that the direction of the Bank’s future policies may have an impact on asset prices.
On Friday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK rose by 0.19 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany increased by 0.41 percent, the CAC 40 index in France increased by 1.34 percent and the MIB 30 index in Italy rose by 0.47 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new week with a decline.
While the stock markets in Asia started the week with a sales-oriented course, the steps taken to support the economy in China continue to be in the focus of investors.
While the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to cut 1- and 5-year loan rates on Tuesday, uncertainty regarding the steps to be taken by the Chinese government continues.
Analysts stated that the steps taken by the Chinese government did not meet the market expectations for now, and noted that the view that the steps that can be taken in the country’s economy may be limited has gradually come to the fore.
Near the closing, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index decreased by 1.2 percent, Hong Kong Hang Seng index decreased by 1.2 percent, Shanghai composite index in China decreased by 0.5 percent and Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 0.8 percent.
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which was mostly selling on Friday, closed the day at 5,475.48 points, 0.36 percent below the previous close.
Dollar/TL is traded at 23,6510 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 23,6197 with a decrease of 0.2 percent on Friday.
Analysts stated that the domestic international investment position and consumer confidence index data will be followed today, and noted that technically, the levels of 5.450 and 5.350 in the BIST 100 index are in the position of support, and the levels of 5.500 and 5.600 are in the resistance position.