The increase in the inflation data announced in the USA last week, below the expectations, increased the risk appetite around the world.

According to the data released on Friday, personal incomes in the USA increased by 0.4 percent in May compared to the previous month, while personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.1 percent, below the expectations.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy items, which the US Federal Reserve (Fed) considers as inflation indicators, increased by 0.3 percent on a monthly basis and by 4.6 percent on an annual basis in the same period.

Inflation expectations fell to 3.3 percent from 4.2 percent in June, the lowest level since March 2021.

Despite the aforementioned developments, while it is predicted that the Fed will increase interest rates by 25 basis points with a 90 percent probability at this month’s meeting, the expectations that it will reduce the policy rate to the 5.50-5.75 percent range by the end of the year continue to strengthen.

Analysts stated that the data on the labor market, which will be announced in the country this week, are placed in the focus of investors, and that the signals to be received from the labor market may increase the volatility in asset prices.

On the other hand, while a sales-heavy trend was prominent in the bond markets last week, the US 10-year bond yield closed the week at 3.84 percent, the highest level since the week of March 6.

The ounce price of gold started the new week with a flat course at $ 1,919, while the barrel price of Brent oil is currently trading at $ 75.3, 0.2 percent above the previous close.

On Friday, the S&P 500 index rose 1.23 percent in the New York stock market, the Nasdaq index rose 1.45 percent and the Dow Jones index rose 0.84 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new week with a mixed course.


Europe

While questions regarding inflation in Europe continued to exist, the 5.4 percent increase in core inflation in the region, according to the data released last week, increased the uncertainties regarding the steps to be taken by the European Central Bank (ECB).

While it is considered certain that the bank will increase the policy rate by 25 basis points at its meeting on July 27, in terms of pricing in the money markets, analysts said that the signals from the macroeconomic data may affect the pricing in question.

On Friday, the FTSE 100 index rose 0.80 percent in the UK, the DAX 40 index rose 1.26 percent in Germany, the CAC 40 index rose 1.19 percent in France and the MIB 30 index rose 1.08 percent in Italy. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new week with a rise.


Asia

Equity markets in Asia started the week with a buying-heavy course, while concerns about the Chinese economy remain.

According to the data announced today in the country, although the manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) decreased to 50.5, it continued to expand, while the manufacturing industry PMI in Japan was 49.8.

Analysts said that despite the question marks about the Chinese economy, the expectations that the government will continue to support the economy support the risk appetite.

Near the closing, the Nikkei 225 index rose 1.63% in Japan, the Kospi index in South Korea rose 1.29 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China rose 1.34 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose 1.9 percent.


Domestic markets

BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which was mostly buying before the Eid-al-Adha holiday in Turkey, completed the highest daily closing of all time with an increase of 0.46 percent at 5,759.11 points on Tuesday, and brought its highest level record to 5,766.58 points.

Dollar/TL is traded at 26,0330 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 25.7825 with a decrease of 1 percent on Friday.

Analysts stated that the manufacturing industry PMI data will be followed around the world today, and noted that technically, 5.850 and 6.000 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the position of resistance, and 5.700 and 5.600 points are in the support position.


The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:

10.00 Türkiye June manufacturing industry PMI

10.55 Germany, June manufacturing PMI

11.00 Eurozone, June manufacturing PMI

11.30 UK, June manufacturing PMI

17.00 USA, June ISM manufacturing PMI

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