The markets, which were relieved by the partial reduction of inflation concerns in the USA, started to seek direction again with the strengthening of recession pricing.

According to the data released in the country yesterday, the Supply Management Institute (ISM) manufacturing index was realized as 46 in June, below market expectations, while the contraction in the manufacturing industry continued.

The Manufacturing Sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for June, announced by S&P Global, was 46.3 in line with expectations.

Despite the increasing concerns about the economic activity in the country, the pricing regarding the steps to be taken by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the fight against inflation remained strong.

Accordingly, while it is predicted that the bank will increase interest rates by 25 basis points with a 90 percent probability at the meeting on July 26, in the pricing in the money markets, it is estimated that the data in the employment report to be announced on Friday will further clarify the expectations for the steps to be taken until the end of the year.

On the other hand, the possibility that the US economy may enter recession continues to come to the fore. While the inverting yield curve in the country points to the sharpest recession pricing in recent years, the difference between the US 2-year bond yield and the 10-year bond yield has reached the highest level since 1980 with approximately 108 basis points.

Similarly, the gap between the US 10-year bond yield and 3-month treasury bond yield fell to 147 basis points, the lowest level since February 1980.

The yield difference between these two assets is followed very closely by the Fed as a recession indicator. In a study conducted by the New York Fed in 1996, it was announced that the economy was expected to enter a recession within 6 to 18 months if the 3-month treasury bond yield exceeded the 10-year bond yield.

While oil prices were fluctuating yesterday, Brent oil gave back its gains with increasing recession concerns after seeing the highest level since June 22 with a barrel price of 76.6 dollars.

While Saudi Arabia announced that it will extend the supply cut of 1 million barrels until August, Russia announced that it will reduce its daily oil supply by 500,000 barrels and Algeria by 200,000 barrels.

The S&P 500 index rose by 0.12 percent, the Nasdaq index by 0.21 percent and the Dow Jones index by 0.03 percent in the half-day transactions in the New York stock market yesterday due to the 4th of July Independence Day holiday. The New York Stock Exchange will be closed today.


While inflation and recession concerns in Europe continue to suppress asset prices, ongoing events in France continue to suppress risk appetite.

On the other hand, European Central Bank (ECB) officials emphasized that they will continue to increase interest rates as part of the fight against inflation, while ECB member Joachim Nagel said that there is still a long way to go in interest rate hikes.

On the other hand, while the difference between the 2-year bond rate and the 10-year bond rate in Germany is up to 80 basis points, it is stated that if the ECB continues its hawkish steps, the said gap may widen further.

While this situation strengthens the concern that Germany may enter a recession, it is also worried that it may have a very negative impact on the Eurozone as it is the strongest economy in the region.

While it is considered certain that the ECB will increase the policy rate by 25 basis points at its meeting on 27 July in terms of pricing in the money markets, it is expected that a total of at least 50 basis points will be increased until the end of the year.

Yesterday, FTSE 100 index decreased by 0.06 percent in England, DAX 40 index decreased by 0.41 percent in Germany and CAC 40 index decreased by 0.18 percent in France, while MIB 30 index increased by 0.77 in Italy. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a mixed course.


While the stock markets in Asia started the new day with a mixed course, the concern that the relations between China and the USA might be strained again is suppressing the asset prices.

While the tension between the two countries has been high for a while due to the production of semiconductor chips, China, with its decision today, has limited the export of gallium and germanium materials used in the production of semiconductor chips.

Analysts pointed out that the said move could further increase the tension in the region and stated that the statements to be made by the USA on the subject would be followed closely.

On the other hand, while the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.10 percent today, it directed that it may continue to increase interest rates in the next meetings.

Close to the closing, Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 0.9 percent, Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 0.3 percent, Shanghai composite index decreased by 0.1 percent in China, while Hang Seng index increased by 0.3 percent in Hong Kong.

Domestic markets

BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which carried the buyer’s trend to the fifth trading day in Turkey yesterday, completed the day at 6,015.29 points with an increase of 4,45 percent, while achieving the highest daily closing of all time, it also brought the highest level record to 6,018.29 points.

Dollar/TL is traded at 25.9790 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 25.9484 with an increase of 0.6 percent yesterday.

Analysts stated that the data agenda is calm today, and technically, 6.100 and 6.250 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the position of resistance, and 5.900 and 5.800 points are in the support position.

The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:

14.00 Türkiye, May banking sector net profit/loss situation

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