The BIST 100 index, which followed a fluctuating course in the first half of the year due to the earthquake disaster and election uncertainty, started an upward trend with the end of the election uncertainty and the steps of the new economy management.
The BIST 100 index, which declined to 4,300 points before the election, increased by about 43 percent after the election, exceeding the limit of 6,150 points.
When the BIST 100 index is analyzed in dollar terms, it is still trading at 234 cents, while it is far from its historical peak of 510 cents.
When the sector-based performances since the beginning of the year are analyzed, it is seen that the transportation sector has the highest return with approximately 51 percent, while the biggest loser was tourism with approximately 16 percent.
Analysts, drawing attention to the importance of the steps to be taken with the new economy management, stated that with the verbal guidance to be made in this period, the question marks in the markets may decrease and this situation may positively affect the asset prices.
Pointing out that the rise in the dollar rate is expected to have a positive impact especially on companies with high foreign exchange income, analysts stated that the upward trend in the stock market may continue with the steps to be taken in the second half of the year, with the interest of foreign investors.
“There may be a positive atmosphere in the stock market, but its competitors have increased”
A1 Capital Research Assistant General Manager Baki Atılal said, “The most determining factors in the second half of the year will be the Central Bank’s (CBRT) interest rate decisions and the fiscal policies of the Ministry of Treasury and Finance.”
Stating that they will follow abroad in the second half of the year, which they regard as the period of transition to rationality, Atılal stated that they will wait to see what the credibility of the steps to be taken in the country will be in the eyes of foreigners.
Atılal pointed out that there were many questions that occupied the minds of investors until the end of the year, and said:
“With monetary and fiscal policies, to what extent will the foreign share side, bond side, foreign direct investment side show interest and will normalization steps continue? What will be the reserve improvement? What will be the KKM process? To what extent the CBRT’s rate hikes will continue? CBRT’ Will the normalization steps of the banking sector be sufficient? What will be the inflation outlook? What is the CBRT’s expectation? It is to disappear with the report.”
Stating that they expect the stock market to remain strong with the expectation that the policy followed will lead to an increase in exchange rates and inflation expectations, Atılal stated that on the other hand, the competitors of the stock market have increased.
“The situation is quite positive for companies with high foreign exchange income”
Dynamic Investment Chief Economist Enver Erkan also stated that the situation will be very positive for companies that provide foreign exchange income in the second half of the year due to the increase in the dollar rate.
On a macro basis, he stated that the new economy team promised to gradually return to traditional policies after the elections held in May, and made the following assessments:
“This approach of returning to traditional policies is progressing towards bringing more predictability to the economy and relieving interventionist regulations that make the market difficult. There is no doubt that the financial sector and the real sector will be pleased with these effects. Therefore, as the exchange rate continues to rise, the positive expectations in the stocks will be reflected as a reflection of orthodox policies. “
“BIST 100 index can see 7,800”
Trive Investment Research Director Dr. Stating that the BIST 100 index, which has exceeded the psychological level of 6,000, continues its upward momentum, Tuğberk Çitilci said, “We are following the level of 6,500 for the Index 100 as the first stage. After the level of 6,500, the momentum can continue with a selective move and the target of 7,800 may come into play.”
Stating that the upward movement of the exchange rate affects the exporting sectors positively and that the “exchange rate up, the stock market up” approach supports the rally, Çitilci stated that they follow transportation, food and clothing, retail and automotive among the sector indices.