Mixed signals from the data released in the US continue to complicate pricing.
According to the data released in the country yesterday, private sector employment in the country increased by 497 thousand people in June, exceeding market expectations, and recorded the largest increase since February 2022.
While the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the USA was 248 thousand in the week ending July 1, slightly above the market expectations, the Number of Jobs Opened in JOLTS remained below the market expectations with 9 million 824 thousand in May.
The Procurement Management Institute (ISM) service sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the country, on the other hand, increased by 3.6 points on a monthly basis to 53.9 in June, exceeding the projections.
With these developments, the probability that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will increase interest rates by 25 basis points at this month’s meeting in the pricing in money markets has increased to 92 percent, while forecasts that the final interest rate will be determined at the level of 5.50-5.75 percent have strengthened.
After yesterday’s data, the US 10-year bond yield increased by about 10 basis points to 4.04 percent, the highest since March 2nd.
Analysts drew attention to the importance of the data in the employment report to be announced today after the mixed signals regarding the economic activity in the country, and said that the non-farm employment data is expected to increase the volatility in the markets, especially with the signals about the course of the labor market.
On the other hand, with the strengthening of the predictions that the Fed may maintain its hawkish stance for a while, the price of an ounce of gold decreased by 0.2 percent to $ 1,910.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 index fell 0.79 percent, the Nasdaq index 0.82 percent and the Dow Jones index 1.07 percent in the New York stock market. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a decrease as well.
Europe
While the concerns of inflation and recession continue to suppress asset prices in Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the bank still has a long way to reduce inflation, but they have provided a significant pullback in inflation.
While it is considered certain that the ECB will increase interest rates by 25 basis points at this month’s meeting, the bank is expected to increase interest rates by 50 basis points in total until the end of the year.
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index decreased by 2.17 percent in the UK, the DAX 40 index decreased by 2.57 percent in Germany, the CAC 40 index decreased by 3.13 percent in France and the MIB 30 index decreased by 2.53 in Italy. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with rising.
Asia
While a mixed course stood out in Asian stock markets, eyes were turned to the meeting between US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Premier Li Qiang.
Analysts stated that the tension between the two countries, which has recently resurfaced over export permits, has negatively affected the risk appetite, adding that the decisions that will come out of the meeting are expected to have an impact on asset prices.
On the other hand, according to the data announced in Japan today, the leading index rose from 96.8 to 109.5.
While the Nikkei 225 index decreased by 0.6 percent in Japan, the Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 1.2 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 0.3 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China increased by 0.1 percent.
Domestic markets
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buyerful course in the domestic market yesterday, completed the day at 6,141.14 points with an increase of 0.56 percent, while achieving the highest daily closing of all time, it brought its highest level record to 6,207.85 points.
Dollar/TL is trading at 26.1040 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 26.0843 with a flat course yesterday.
Analysts stated that the treasury cash balance in the country and the data in the employment report in the USA abroad will be followed today, and noted that technically, 6,200 and 6,300 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the position of resistance, and 6,100 and 6,000 points are in the support position.
