Macroeconomic data and company financial results continue to affect asset prices before the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decisions to be taken next week.

While it is considered certain that the Fed will increase the policy rate by 25 basis points on July 26, the uncertainty regarding the steps to be taken by the Bank after this meeting continues.

Analysts stated that despite the ongoing slowdown in the inflation and labor market in the country, the fact that it is not at the desired level disturbs the Fed members, adding that the delayed effect of monetary policy decisions is one of the main question marks among investors.

Analysts said that the “hawk” policies in the country are coming to an end and bond interest rates are suppressed with the strengthening of soft landing scenarios, and the signals to be taken from the decision text of the meeting to be held next week and the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will have an impact on the direction of the markets.

While the net profit of Goldman Sachs, one of the largest banks in the country, which announced its balance sheets for the second quarter yesterday, decreased by 58 percent compared to the same period of the previous year to $ 1.2 billion, American electric car manufacturer Tesla’s income increased by 47 percent and net profit increased by 20 percent in the same period.

The number of subscribers of the global internet television network Netflix also increased by approximately 5.9 million people in the second quarter of 2023. The company’s revenue in the second quarter of the year increased by 3 percent compared to the same period of the previous year to $ 8.2 billion, while its net profit increased by 3 percent to $ 1.5 billion.

In the period in question, the US technology company IBM’s revenue decreased by 0.4 percent to $ 15.48 billion, but its net profit increased by 13 percent to $ 1.6 billion.

Analysts stated that companies such as Johnson & Johnson, Blackstone and American Airlines will announce their financial results today in the ongoing balance sheet season in the USA, and stated that stock and sector-based volatility may increase.

On the other hand, the Fed yesterday fined Deutsche Bank and its US subsidiaries $186 million for failing to take adequate action to prevent money laundering.

The ounce price of gold, which closed the day at $1,977 with a decrease of 0.1 percent yesterday, is currently trading at $1,985, 0.4 percent above its previous closing.

While the price of Brent oil per barrel continues to seek direction with uncertainties regarding the Chinese economy, it is currently hovering at $79.5, 0.1 percent above the previous closing.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 in the New York stock market closed with an increase of 0.21 percent, the Nasdaq index by 0.03 percent and the Dow Jones index by 0.31 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a mixed course.


Europe

While a mixed course is prominent in Europe, the Grain Corridor Agreement is at the center of the agenda after the inflation data announced throughout the region.

According to the macroeconomic data released yesterday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the UK was realized below expectations with an annual increase of 7.9 percent in June, while it increased by 5.5 percent in the Euro Area, in line with the projections.

Analysts said that rather than the fact that the inflation in the Euro Area was in line with the forecasts, the increase in the core CPI indicates that the inflationary environment will have an impact on the region for a long time.

Core CPI in the Eurozone exceeded expectations with an annual increase of 5.5 percent in June.

After the inflation slowed down more than expected in the UK yesterday, the FTSE 100 index gained 1.8 percent and recorded the strongest closure of the last 1 month.

While the DAX 40 index decreased by 0.10 percent in Germany, the CAC 40 index gained 0.11 percent in France. MIB 30 index in Italy finished the day with a flat course. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a mixed course.


Asia

Stock markets in Asia started the day with a negative trend excluding Hong Kong.

Today, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left its lowest loan rate unchanged at 3.55 percent.

Analysts stated that the thought that the Chinese government’s steps to support the economy are not sufficient in the markets, said that more support statements may come from China in the future.

On the other hand, according to data released today, foreign trade surplus in Japan was 43 billion yen in June. Thus, Japan posted a foreign trade surplus for the first time since July 2021.

While Nikkei 225 index decreased by 1.2 percent in Japan, Shanghai composite index decreased by 0.3 percent in China and Kospi index decreased by 0.2 percent in South Korea, Hang Seng index gained 0.3 percent in Hong Kong.


Domestic markets

BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed an upward trend in the domestic market yesterday, finished the day at 6,571.28 points with an increase of 3.24 percent.

Dollar/TL is traded at 26,8480 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 26.7888 with a decrease of 0.5 percent yesterday.

Analysts said today that the CBRT interest rate decision is in the focus of investors. Economists participating in the expectations survey of AA Finans predict that the CBRT will increase the one-week repo auction rate (policy rate) by 500 basis points to 20 percent.

Analysts also pointed out the importance of the signals to be taken from the policy text regarding today’s decision and stated that volatility may increase in the markets after the decision.

On the other hand, in a statement made by the Presidency’s Directorate of Communications, it was reported that 13 documents were signed and accepted between Turkey and the UAE within the scope of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit, with the amount of agreements amounting to 50.7 billion dollars.

Analysts also noted that the weekly money and bank statistics in the country, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Germany, the consumer confidence index in the Euro Area, the second-hand house sales in the USA and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will be followed, and technically, 6.600 and 6.700 levels in the BIST 100 index are resistance and 6.500 and 6.400 points are support.

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