In the world economies, which are in the dilemma of inflation and recession, the expectations for the next period continue to be uncertain.
While questions remain about where the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will set the final interest rate, the decline in inflation expectations in the country supported the risk appetite, albeit to a limited extent.
According to the results of the July Consumer Expectations Survey announced by the Fed’s New York Branch, the short-term inflation expectation of American consumers decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.5 percent. The short-term inflation expectation, which carried its decline into the fourth month, saw its lowest level since April 2021.
Analysts stated that the situation in question is important in terms of increasing the optimism that the hawkish policies that have been going on for about 1.5 years are approaching, and that together with the data to be announced throughout the week, the balance sheets of retail giants such as Home Depot, Target and Walmart may also give clues about the situation of US consumers. .
Drawing attention to the importance of the Fed meeting minutes to be announced tomorrow, analysts stated that possible directions in the minutes may also have an impact on pricing.
Analysts stated that the Fed is predicted to keep the policy rate unchanged next month with a 90 percent probability in the pricing in the money markets, and stated that the uncertainties regarding the other two meetings to be held until the end of the year remain strong.
Reminding that investors consider the possibility of a recession along with the expectations of a “soft landing” in the US economy, analysts noted that the selling pressure in the bond markets continues as inflation is still well above the targeted level.
While the US 10-year bond yield carried its upward trend for the fourth consecutive day in the new day, it realized the highest daily close since 7 November with 4.2 percent yesterday.
With these developments, the gold price of 1.902 dollars an ounce, after testing the lowest level since July 6, is currently stabilizing at $ 1,906, while analysts stated that rising bond yields have increased the alternative cost of gold investment and suppressed the price of an ounce of gold.
While the dollar index carried its upward trend for the fourth day in a row and took its place at the top of the last month with 103.1, it is seen that the copper pound received a reaction from $ 3.7, which analysts describe as important technical support.
On the other hand, after Morgan Stanley gave a “buy” recommendation for semiconductor chip manufacturer Nvidia in a report, the share price increased by about 7 percent, and this trend also positively affected the risk appetite in the stock markets.
With these developments, the Dow Jones index increased by 0.07 percent, the S&P 500 index by 0.58 percent and the Nasdaq index by 1.05 percent in the New York stock market yesterday. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a rise.
Europe
In Europe, the region where the inflation and recession dilemma is felt most strongly, the stock markets rose yesterday, except for the UK.
Analysts stated that the data calendar that will intensify in the region as of today is being followed closely and stated that when inflation and recession risk are taken into account, signals about the state of economic activity are likely to increase the volatility in pricing.
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK decreased by 0.23 percent, while the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy increased by 0.57 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 0.12 percent and the DAX 40 in Germany by 0.46 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the day with rising.
Asia
Negative news flow from China continues to weigh on Asian markets.
While the data announced in China today increased the concerns about the country’s economy, which is already in a deflationary process, the People’s Bank of China reduced the 1-year borrowing rate by 15 basis points from 2.65 percent to 2.50 percent before the data were announced.
Although the industrial production in the country increased by 3.7 percent and retail sales by 2.5 percent, it was well below the expectations. While the unemployment rate in China rose to 5.3 percent, it was noteworthy that the country announced that it stopped publishing the youth unemployment rate.
In another statement made by Chinese sources, it was stated that the problem in the real estate sector will be solved in time.
On the other hand, according to the pioneering growth data of Japan, the Japanese economy grew by 6 percent annually in the second quarter of the year, leaving the projections behind, and this situation was effective in the positive divergence of Japanese assets.
While the Nikkei 225 index increased by 0.6 percent in Japan near the closing, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 1.3 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China decreased by 0.9 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 0.8 percent.
Domestic markets
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which was buying domestically yesterday, broke the closing record by closing the day at 7,737.38 points with a 0.30 percent increase in value, and brought the highest level it had ever seen to 7,868.74 points.
Dollar/TL is traded at 27.0590 at the opening of the interbank market today, after completing yesterday at 27.0406, 0.6 percent above the previous close.
Analysts stated that today, the budget balance in the country, the Zew expectation indices in the Eurozone and Germany, the New York Fed manufacturing index and retail sales in the USA will be followed today, and technically, the 7,850 and 8,000 levels in the BIST 100 index are resistance, 7,600 and 7500 levels. He noted that the score is in the support position.
