According to the compilation of OECD and Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) data, Turkey carried its economic growth to the 12th quarter with its performance in the April-June period of this year.
Among OECD countries, Costa Rica ranked first with a growth of 5.1 percent in the April-June period of this year compared to the same quarter of the previous year. This country was followed by Türkiye with 3.8 percent and Mexico with 3.5 percent.
The average growth of OECD countries’ economies in the second quarter was estimated at 1.5 percent. In the said period, the economic growth in the European Union (EU) was 0.5 percent.
Among the countries whose data were announced in the OECD, Estonia was the country whose economy shrank the most with minus 3 percent. This country was followed by Hungary with minus 2.3 percent and Sweden with minus 2.2 percent.
Türkiye was also among the top 3 among the G20 countries.
The country with the highest growth rate among the G20 countries, whose growth data were announced for the second quarter, was recorded as China with 6.3 percent. Indonesia with 4.9 percent, Turkey with 3.8 percent and Mexico with 3.5 percent followed this country.
Looking at the growth rates of EU countries, Ireland ranked first, followed by Turkey and Portugal, respectively.
“We maintain our growth expectation of 3 percent for this year”
Finance Analyst and Economist Haluk Bürümcekçi said that in the first half of this year, despite the earthquake in February, national income increased by 3.9 percent and the main driver was domestic demand, similar to the previous year.
In the second half, Bürümcekçi stated that the signals that the growth trend has slowed down, especially after July, due to the manufacturing sectors, said that the Manufacturing Industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell below the threshold value for the first time this year, and decreases in all sectoral confidence indices, especially real sector and consumer confidence. reported recorded.
Bürümcekci stated that the impact of the ongoing slowdown in global activity on the manufacturing sector, as well as the expectation that the slowdown in loan growth, brought about by tax increases, new macroprudential measures for consumer loans and credit cards, and the rise in loan rates, could restrain domestic demand.
Bürümcekci stated that after the last interest rate decision of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), the interest rates on deposits and loans may rise together and the financial conditions may tighten significantly.
“However, we think it is too early to predict how deep these effects will slow down. Inflationary pressures and exchange rate increases push demand forward and the local elections to be held in the first quarter of next year make it difficult to get a clear picture of growth. Accordingly, 3 percent for this year.” We maintain our growth expectation at the same level.”
“The construction industry will contribute to growth uninterruptedly”
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics Lecturer Prof. Dr. Sefer Şener also said that when the economic activity branches are considered, the increase in the service sector, which is well above the average, can be evaluated positively in terms of future expectations.
“On the other hand, with the resumption of housing activities, especially with the urban transformation and after the earthquake, the construction sector’s growth of 6.2 percent above the average shows that the construction sector will contribute to growth in the coming period,” Şener said.
Pointing out that annual growth can be viewed more positively as the service, construction and finance sectors and insurance activities continue to grow, Şener said, “Although the growth is significantly positive compared to Europe and the USA, the fact that the industrial sector, which is one of the driving forces of growth, has been shrinking for the last 2 quarters will be especially selective in the coming period. It makes it necessary to give more serious incentives to the industrial sector with the credit method,” he said.
From this point of view, Şener emphasized that the importance of export-oriented loan agreements between the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM) and banks will increase even more, and stated that the fact that all branches of economic activity, except industry, are still positive, shows that the growth will continue effectively in the coming period.
Şener stated that the GDP reached 271 billion 468 million dollars in current prices in the second quarter, and emphasized that if current growth is achieved in the last 2 quarters, the GDP at current prices may exceed 1 trillion dollars this year.
Stating that household final consumption expenditures increased by 15.6 percent as a chained volume index as of the second quarter of 2023, Şener stated that the fact that household consumption expenditures are growing so much and that it contributes to growth by 10 points shows that the demand in the domestic market is still very lively in terms of consumption.
Expressing that the 5.1 percent increase in gross fixed capital formation is also an important criterion, Şener noted that this is an indication that production and employment will continue.
Şener said, “Macro precautionary measures and structural arrangements that will increase production and exports and reduce consumption should be implemented without delay.”