While inflation concerns, which have been affecting asset prices for a while, have gradually subsided, the non-farm employment data released in the US signaled a softening in the labor market.
According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday, the country’s unemployment rate rose to 3.8 percent from 3.5 percent, reaching its highest level since February 2022, although non-farm employment exceeded expectations at 187,000 in August.
Average hourly earnings, which the Fed watches closely, also increased by 0.2 percent, below market expectations.
The Procurement Management Institute (ISM) manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the country was above expectations with 47.6 in August. Although the ISM manufacturing industry PMI remained below 50, showing that the contraction continued, exceeding the expectations and reaching the highest level in the last 6 months stood out as a promising signal that the concerns in the manufacturing sector would decrease.
Analysts said that the data released in the USA recently gave clues that interest rates in the country are approaching their peak, and that the possibility of keeping the policy rate constant at the September meeting is considered as certain.
On the other hand, International Monetary Fund (IMF) First Vice-President Gita Gopinath stated that they expect global interest rates to remain high for a long time while the struggle to return inflation to the targeted level continues.
Following these developments, the ounce price of gold, which carried its upward trend for the second week in a row with an increase of 1.3 percent last week, started the new week at $1,945 with a 0.2 percent increase in value.
The barrel price of Brent oil, which closed the week with an increase of 5.4 percent at $88.7, especially as concerns about the Chinese economy subsided, is currently trading at $88.4, 0.4 percent below its previous closing.
Realizing the strongest weekly rise of the last 5 months, Brent oil made the highest weekly close of the last 10 months.
On Friday, the Dow Jones index gained 0.33 percent and the S&P 500 index gained 0.15 percent in the New York stock market, while the Nasdaq index followed a flat course.
The transaction will not take place in the USA
Today, there will be no transactions in the markets due to a holiday in the USA.
While a positive course was observed in the European stock markets, the eyes were turned to the speech of Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB).
Analysts stated that the data announced throughout the region gave mixed signals and said that the expectations that the ECB may pause the rate hike have increased.
While the downward trend in the manufacturing industry PMI data in the Euro Zone continued, the leading Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 5.3 percent on an annual basis and by 0.6 percent on a monthly basis in August, exceeding expectations.
Risk appetite rises in Asian markets
Stating that verbal guidance from ECB President Lagarde and Bank members will be followed today, analysts said that the signals to be received from the speeches may give clues about how the Bank will follow in the upcoming period.
On Friday, the DAX 40 index in Germany decreased by 0.67 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy by 0.63 percent and the CAC 40 index in France by 0.27 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in the UK increased by 0.34 percent. . Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a positive trend.
In Asian markets, the positive news flow from China continues to increase risk appetite.
According to the data released in the country on Friday, while the Caixin manufacturing industry PMI surpassed expectations with 51, increased confidence in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced that it would cut reserve requirements to revive the economy, and increases were observed under the leadership of the banking sector.
The economic recovery is expected to remain fragile, continuing the pressure on policymakers to offer more stimulus.
In China, lowering the minimum down payment rate to 20 percent for first-time home buyers and 30 percent for second home buyers continues to support the real estate sector upwards.
On the other hand, this week, investors focused on the inflation data to be announced in China, as well as the interest rate decisions of the central banks of Australia and Malaysia across the region.
Close to the closing, Nikkei 225 index gained 0.4 percent in Japan, Shanghai composite index gained 1.1 percent in China and Kospi index in South Korea gained 0.5 percent.
Hang Seng index in Hong Kong, which was suspended on Friday due to Super Typhoon Saola, reopened today and recorded an increase of 2.5 percent.
August inflation will be announced today
While the eyes are on the inflation data to be announced today, it is estimated that the volatility in the markets may increase after the data.
Economists participating in the Finance Inflation Expectation Survey expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to increase by 7.32 percent in August. According to the average of economists’ August inflation expectations (7.32%), annual inflation, which was 47.83 percent in the previous month, is calculated to rise to 56.37 percent.
Fitch Ratings’ Türkiye report is awaited
Moving in an upward trend on Friday, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul completed the day at 8,056.12 points with a 1.75 percent value increase, while achieving the highest daily and weekly closing of all time, it brought its highest level record to 8,060.92 points.
Dollar/TL is trading at 26,6900 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 26.7321 with an increase of 0.1 percent on Friday.
On the other hand, international credit rating agency Moody’s raised its growth forecast for the Turkish economy this year from 2.6 percent to 4.2 percent and from 2 percent to 3 percent for the next year, last week.
Fitch Ratings is also expected to publish an evaluation report for Türkiye on Friday.
Analysts stated that today, in addition to inflation in the country and foreign trade surplus in Germany, the speech of ECB President Lagarde will be followed, and technically, 8,100 and 8,200 levels in the BIST 100 index are resistance, and 8,000 and 7,900 points are support.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
09.00 Germany, foreign trade balance in July
10.00 Türkiye, August CPI and PPI
16.30 Eurozone, Speech by ECB President Lagarde