While the concern of encountering an oil deficit in the last quarter of this year has increased oil prices to the highest level in the last 10 months, a cautious attitude stands out among investors before the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be announced today in the USA.
Analysts said that the inflation data to be announced in the country may give signals about what steps the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will take by the end of the year.
Reminding that the pricing in the money markets shows that it is certain that the Bank will keep the policy rate constant in the September meeting, analysts stated that there is still uncertainty about what course the Fed will follow in the November meeting.
Analysts stated that the possibility of the Fed reducing interest rates by the end of the year has completely disappeared in the pricing in money markets and that there may be changes in pricing after the inflation data.
Stating that the supply concerns experienced in the energy sector for a while may have affected today’s inflation data, analysts said that a 0.6 percent increase in monthly CPI is expected. In the previous month, CPI increased by 0.2 percent on a monthly basis.
Analysts emphasized that if inflation data is above expectations, the possibility of the Fed to raise interest rates again by the end of the year may increase.
On the other hand, the rise in the barrel price of Brent oil gained momentum after Russia and Saudi Arabia announced that they extended the restrictions on oil production and exports until the end of the year, while the monthly report announced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) yesterday included the expectation that an oil deficit may occur, causing prices to rise. There was another factor that supported the direction.
The barrel price of Brent oil, which increased by 0.2 percent today to $91.8, continued its upward trend for the 4th consecutive trading day, thus reaching its highest level since November 2022.
Following these developments, the dollar index, which completed the day at 104.5 with a 0.1 percent decrease yesterday, is currently at 104.7, 0.1 percent above its previous closing.
The negative trend in the US stock markets came to the fore with the profit sales in technology stocks yesterday, which had a positive start to the week.
Oracle’s shares lost more than 13 percent after its financial results fell below expectations in the first quarter of this year. Apple’s shares, which introduced its new products, also fell by nearly 2 percent.
Yesterday, in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.05 percent, the S&P 500 index decreased by 0.56 percent and the Nasdaq index decreased by 1.04 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA also started the new day with a negative trend.
While there was a sell-off trend in European stock markets, investors focused on the intense data agenda across the region.
While the data announced in Europe, which stands out as the region where the inflation and recession dilemma is felt most strongly, continues to give mixed signals, today’s eyes are on industrial production and UK growth data to be announced throughout the region.
Yesterday, the September results of the ZEW Economic Confidence Index, which measures the expectations of institutional investors and analysts for the next 6 months, were announced by the European Center for Economic Research (ZEW). While the ZEW expectation index in Germany exceeded expectations with minus 11.4, it was below expectations with minus 8.9 in the Eurozone.
Analysts reported that the probability of the European Central Bank (ECB) increasing the policy rate by 25 basis points at tomorrow’s meeting in money markets has increased to 54 percent. At the beginning of the week, this probability was at 40 percent.
While the negative trend in the US stock markets is moving to Asian markets, excluding South Korea, investors are being cautious before the US inflation data across the region.
On the other hand, the Chinese real estate company Country Garden, which has been on the agenda for a while, announced that it agreed to extend the repayments of creditors for 6 bonds for 3 years, and then reported that another creditor agreed to extend the payment period of the company.
According to data released in the region, the unemployment rate in South Korea fell to 2 percent in August, the lowest level since June 1999.
The annual Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan increased by 3.2 percent in August, in line with expectations.
Near the close, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan lost 0.1 percent, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong lost 0.2 percent and the Shanghai composite index in China lost 0.9 percent, while the Kospi index in South Korea increased by 0.1 percent. .
Domestically, Borsa Istanbul’s BIST 100 index, which followed a fluctuating course yesterday, completed the day at 8,159.90 points with a 0.16 percent gain in value.
After following a horizontal course and closing the day at 26.8860, Dollar/TL is traded at 26.9174 at the opening of the interbank market today.
On the other hand, according to the data published by the Central Registry Agency (MKK) yesterday, as of September 11, the number of investors with a balance increased to 10 million 62 thousand 28, while the number of investors with a balance in stocks reached 7 million 140 thousand 215, breaking a record.
Analysts stated that the data agenda is calm in the country today, and that growth and foreign trade deficit in the UK, industrial production in Europe and inflation data in the USA will be followed abroad, and from a technical perspective, the 8,200 and 8,300 levels in the BIST 100 index are resistance, and the 8,100 and 8,000 levels are resistance. He noted that the score is in a support position.